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Germany's Role in Europe and the European Debt Crisis
By George Friedman
02/02/2012

The German government proposed last week that a European commissioner be appointed to supplant the Greek government. While phrasing the German proposal this way might seem extreme, it is not unreasonable. Under the German proposal, this commissioner would hold power over the Greek national budget and taxation. Since the European...

Germany's Role in Europe and the European Debt Crisis
By George Friedman
02/02/2012

TAIWAN'S 2012 PRESIDENTIAL AND LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS: WINNERS, LOSERS, AND IMPLICATIONS
Jacques deLisle
01/31/2012

MA YING-JEOU AND THE KUOMINTANG: A LIMITED WIN The American political phrase, "Don't change horses in midstream," does not, alas, translate well in Taiwan, but it does capture much of the tone of the recent elections on the island. Voters opted for continuity over perceived risk and uncertainty-including in...

Considering a U.S.-Iranian Deal
By George Friedman
01/24/2012

Last week, I wrote on the strategic challenge Iran faces in its bid to shape a sphere of influence stretching from western Afghanistan to Beirut on the eastern Mediterranean coast.
I also pointed out the limited options available to the United States and other Western powers to counter Iran.
One was...

LIFE BEGINS AFTER 25: DEMOGRAPHY AND THE SOCIETAL TIMING OF THE ARAB SPRING
by Richard Cincotta
01/24/2012

Much has been written about the circumstances that led Middle East experts to be blindsided by the successful series of popular demonstrations that kicked off the Arab Spring in December 2010. Writing in Foreign Affairs, political scientist Gregory Gausse recounts how regional specialists, like himself, overestimated the strength and cohesiveness...

LIFE BEGINS AFTER 25: DEMOGRAPHY AND THE SOCIETAL TIMING OF THE ARAB SPRING
by Richard Cincotta
01/24/2012

Annual Forecast 2012
01/15/2012

There are periods when the international system undergoes radical shifts in a short time. The last such period was 1989-1991. During that time, the Soviet empire collapsed. The Japanese economic miracle ended. The Maastricht Treaty creating contemporary Europe was signed. Tiananmen Square defined China as a market economy dominated by...

Mexico Security Memo: The Future of Methamphetamine in Guatemala
01/15/2012

Quantifying Meth Production
A new year has begun, and some statistics from 2011 may indicate the direction in which Mexico's methamphetamine trade is headed for 2012. In December, Mexican authorities reportedly sized 675 tons of methylamine, a key precursor chemical for the manufacture of methamphetamine, from a shipment bound for Guatemala....